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October 27, 2008 - 2:35pm
Inside Edge
Poll: Gregoire leads outside margin of error
By Wally EdgeWith the exception of the Elway polls, all public polling since August has shown the gubernatorial race to be within the margin of error. Today, a University of Washington survey finds Gov. Chris Gregoire (D) leading Dino Rossi (R) by 51 to 45 percent. The poll's margin of error was 4 percent.
In the same poll, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) leads U.S. Sen. John McCain by 55 to 34 percent, a considerably wider margin than the pollster.com average of 53 to 41.8 percent.
This poll may be over-predicting Democratic performance, or it might be among the first to detect momentum in the direction of Democrats. Time will tell.
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I wish
Unfortunately, the U of W survey results with Gregoire in the lead was not outside the margin of error. Being a Gregoire supporter, I wish it was.
Yes, the results had a +/- sampling error of 4% at the 95% confidence level. However, that is a +/- 4% error for Gregoire's 51% and a +/- 4% error for Rossi's 45%. So . . . given the sample size of the survey . . . the difference between the Gregoire and Rossi would have to be over 8% for there to be a statistically significant difference. It obviously is not. It is 6% . . . so there is in fact a statically tie between the two.
I know it is counter intuitive. It is a common mistake.
You can either crack open a intro stat book or you can trust me on this. I worked in the polling industry a few years back, and took more statistics classes in grad school than you can shake a stick at.
Bryan E. Burke, PhD.
Exe. Director of Eastern Wa. Voters
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