Capturing the youth vote

Capturing the youth vote is the quixotic dream of all politicians. If you can get a person to vote for one party or the other in their first few elections, it’s likely that they will vote for that party for the rest of their life – people build brand loyalty early. The biggest predictor of how (and whether) a person will vote, is how their parents vote. It really is just that simple.

But the numbers of young people voting have been decreasing since the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 – that was in 1971, during the Vietnam War when 18-year-olds were facing a draft. The younger generation now has it’s own war in Iraq, but with a wider choice of media outlets and information filters, they need not know anything about the war let alone fear that it will hit home.

In 1996, 32 percent of the 18-24-year-old population voted. In 1998, only 18 percent voted. There was a bump in youth voting in 1992, with the election of Clinton, our first “rock and roll” president. There was a similar bump in 2004, when 47 percent of young people voted, attributable more to Howard Dean’s use of the internet and widespread disaffection with George W. Bush than to any affinity with John Kerry. Neither bump reached the level of youth voting in 1972, the all-time-high of 52 percent. (Source: CivicYouth.org)

In 2004, about 70 percent of people over 45 voted. (Source: U.S. Census)

Every election year, pollsters and professional speculators say that young people will vote this time. Every year they don’t.

And then they wonder why nobody pays attention to the cost of college or to the economic difficulties that attend those just starting out in the workforce. Young people say they feel disaffected because nobody is paying attention to them.

This year, articles and anecdotes say that the youth are particularly enthused by Obama. Just as they were supposed to be enthused by Dean, and Clinton before him. Talking heads wonder if the youth vote can swing an election. The answer is that they haven’t yet.