As Goes Washington, So Goes America?

Barack Obama's convincing win in the Washington caucuses this past Saturday showed a diverse coalition of support even within the Evergreen state. Jurisdiction-level results show that the Illinois Senator won solidly across the state, achieving victories in each of Washington's thirty-nine counties.

Moreover, while most counties reported results comparable to Obama's 67.4%-31.2% statewide victory over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, certain themes occurred pertaining to his areas of strong support. Obama won his largest victory margins in a mix of urban and rural areas in both Democratic and Republican strongholds.

Seattle's two most urban and liberal districts are the 43rd and 37th. The former includes Capitol Hill, University of Washington and Fremont while the latter constitutes the racially diverse Central District. As expected, they went heavily for Obama. The 43rd gave 78% of their support and the 37th gave 81%.

Likewise two of the counties that compromise the much of the liberal 40th district, San Juan and Whatcom Counties, went for Obama with 81% and 75%, respectively. Although it includes Bellingham and Western Washington University, much of Whatcom County is very rural unlike its liberal counterparts in the 37th and 43rd. San Juan County, meanwhile, is the state's smallest geographically, and boasts only one census-recognized town, Friday Harbor with a modest population of just under 2,000.

Another heavily rural Obama stronghold was the Olympic Peninsula. Clallam and Jefferson Counties each gave Barack Obama a disproportionately high seventy-two per cent of the vote. Despite their lockstep support of Obama on Saturday, these counties are historically different in their politics. Jefferson went strongly for Kerry in the last election, especially in liberal Port Townsend, while Clallam chose Bush by five points in 2004.

Nor did his support come strictly from the rainy side of the state. The Palouse was firmly Obama country. The region of Southeastern Washington made up of windswept and rolling wheat fields near the Snake River contains four counties, Asotin, Garfield, Columbia and Whitman. Furthermore the 9th District that represents most of the Palouse is state GOP stronghold. Still it was the site of some of Obama's greatest support on Saturday.

Columbia and Garfield counties, Washington's smallest at just over 4,000 and 2,000, respectively, supported Barack with more than 90% of the vote. Garfield gave its one and only delegate and Columbia went 15-1 for Obama. Asotin County, which gave George Bush 60% of its votes in 2004, gave the same per cent to Obama on Saturday. And Whitman County, home to Washington State University, gave an overwhelming 78% to Barack. Combining all their pledged delegates, the Palouse went three to one for Barack Obama.

Just east of the mountains in Central Washington's heavily Republican 12th District, whose delegation includes a GOP state senator and two Republican state representatives, voters also flocked to Obama. Chelan and Okanogan Counties gave 73% and 82%, respectively while Douglas County, just over the river to the east, was won in slightly less convincing fashion by a tally of 62.4% - 37.6%. All told, Obama won 74% of the delegates in the 12th district.

At least here in Washington, Obama's electoral success can be attributed by overwhelming wins in the liberal cities and forests, combined with three to one support in the arid Republican hinterlands, and with no significant weaknesses in suburbs and small towns. Obviously if this coalition of rural and urban, left and right continues to hold for Obama in places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio, Washington State may have correctly chosen the next Democratic nominee for President.