New Elway poll tracks statewide races, shows Gregoire up

A new poll done by local tracker Stuart Elway shows Gov. Chris Gregoire with a large lead over Republican Dino Rossi. The survey, which took place July 27-31 with a relatively small sample of 405 registered voters, had Gregoire up by a count of 52 percent to 36 percent with 12 percent undecided.

The numbers are good news for the incumbent in part because they show her with more than 50 percent support from voters and a lead that withstands the 5 percent margin of error and according to the Seattle P-I's Joel Connelly, who first reported the results, Gregoire led nearly everywhere in the state.

The good news for Rossi is that this is only one poll, and many recent snapshots have shown a much smaller lead for the governor. But perhaps better still, the Elway poll has Rossi leading in both Kitsap and Pierce Counties, normally Democratic districts that Rossi narrowly won in 2004.

The Elway poll also asked voters about a number of other statewide races, proving mostly that people are uncertain about the candidates.

In the race for attorney general, Republican AG Rob McKenna had the support of 41 percent of voters while Democrat John Ladenburg took 30 percent, roughly the same level as undecided voters. Meanwhile Republican state public lands commissioner Doug Sutherland and Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark were nearly deadlocked, with the Democrat leading 31-30, and the rest unsure.

On the ballot initiative front, I-1000 that deals with physician-assisted suicide carries certain support from 39 percent of voters, and certain opposition from 26 percent. I-985, which would mandate certain aspects of the Department of Transportation's actions, had 28 percent of voters definitely behind it and another 30 percent said they would probably vote for it.

Tim Eyman, the main backer of I-985, was sure to point this out upon seeing the mixed results of the poll.  "An interesting factoid," Eyman said in an e-mail to supporters and media, "voters will read I-985's BALLOT TITLE on their ballots and in the voters pamphlet.  But Elway read the respondents of his poll the BALLOT SUMMARY.  This means the results are not as predictive."